A New York Times article written by Roger Cohen hints that Asia may prefer a Republican over a Democrat. Cohen suggests that Asian countries, such as China, Japan and India, are more comfortable with a U.S. president who plays power politics based on the classic balance of power equation. Since Obama's foreign policy may allocate extensive emphasis on trade protectionism and international human rights, the Chinese authorities could feel significantly more pressure from a Democratic president. As Cohen writes, although the current President's foreign policy is not welcomed by the domestic audience, China actually benefited from Bush's war in Iraq, because  "China has been pleased by the way Baghdad bloodshed took the focus off Beijing".

 

Besides ideology, Chinese leaders may not favor Obama because they believe that dealing with Republicans is easier. A historical bias, as Cohen puts it, is now shaping Beijing's attitude towards the Democrats. Cohen suggests that since the six-party talks on North Korea have strengthened Sino-U.S. diplomatic interactions under the Bush administration, an America led by Obama that "turns inward" might very well not be in China's best interests.

 

Cohen's worries are shared by his Chinese counterparts. An article by Zhengxin Li (奥巴马对华政策初析) points out that Obama's China policy would deviate noticeably from that of the current administration, particularly in the economic arena. Li suggests that Obama, if elected president, might place labor rights and environmental protection on the top of his foreign policy priorities. Moreover, since Obama is likely to exert more pressure on China over WTO rules, trade deficit, intellectual property, and exchange rate, Beijing may find him much more difficult to deal with in comparison to George W. Bush.

   

 

Individual characteristics of the chief executive matter in U.S. foreign policy making, and so do those of Obama. Obama's education and political experience will certainly have an impact on the way he perceives international relations and his attitude toward the developing countries, including China. As Yawei Liu suggests in his article "Guessing at Obama's China policy" (猜猜奥巴马的对华政策), Obama might pursue a dovish foreign policy that is more tolerant and more open to negotiations because of his multicultural background and Ivy League education. Liu believes that Obama's experience with Asia will prepare him with a "meticulous understanding" of the culture, economy and political transitions of the third World. In terms of China, Liu concludes that Obama may unfold two different attitudes: while personal experience would help him better understand China, the African-American presidential nominee might still pay "special attention" to China's democracy and human rights record.

 

 

Regardless of the speculations on his foreign policy, Obama has, after all, made the American dream a reality. That alone is enough to awaken passion inside the hearts of the Chinese people. As Da Lin, a Chinese author residing in the States believes, Obama clinching the Democratic nomination was "a result of historical progress" (奥巴马胜出是历史进步的成果), which enlightened the fundamental beliefs of America in the hearts of its people. Indeed, for many citizens of China not seasoned in politics, Obama's victory has signified the success of civil rights, the collapse of racial barriers, and a real world example of the American dream.

 

 

It is too soon to tell how China would react to Obama's foreign policy, as the presidential election is still far from coming to a clear end, and the Obama campaign wouldn't stake out policy ground this early. Nevertheless, at the current moment one should keep in mind that Obama is a politician. Once assuming the presidency, if at all, he will be constrained by various considerations and consult a large number of advisors. On the official website of Barack Obama's campaign, the presidential nominee indicates that he will "forge a more effective framework in Asia that goes beyond bilateral agreements, occasional summits, and ad hoc arrangements, such as the six-party talks on North Korea". In regards to China, Obama proposes that he will "work to ensure that China plays by international rules," a notion that clearly reflects his desire to keep pressure on China through the international system. Also, Obama said in the first Democratic primary presidential debate that China is neither an enemy nor a friend, but a competitor that needs to be held responsible for regional stability.

 

So does China like Obama? On the one hand, at the public level it is hard to deny that Obama's rhetorical talent has left a very good impression among young Chinese citizens who have become more interested than ever in American politics. On the other hand, the Chinese government's reaction to Obama's nomination is still being formed as the Democratic nominee gears up for the general election. Therefore, although the Chinese public is hoping that this African-American U.S. president would build a more benign relationship between the two countries, the question whether Obama could bring fundamental change to the current regime and lead America to the end of political polarization is still yet to be answered.

     

    TIPS & LINKS

    Issue 31, June 13, 2008    

    China Program, the Carter Center

 

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