1. Hard-liner voices within China: Zhou Zhihuai: Taiwan independence' poses biggest threat for national security

     

    Zhou Zhihuai, deputy director general of the Institute of Taiwan Studies under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences recently submitted a highly critical article on Taiwan's independence attempts to the People's Daily ("Taiwan independence' poses biggest threat for national security"). Zhou claims that the likelihood of peaceful reunification will diminish and the chance of war will greatly increase as Taiwan further pursues independence. In his harsh analysis of Taiwan's bid for independence, Zhou accuses the Democratic Progress Party (DPP), Taiwan's leading political party, and the Taiwanese leader Chen Shui-bian, for activities of "gradual independence," represented most recently by Taiwan's bid to join the United Nations.

     

    While claiming Taiwan is beefing up militarily to resist reunification by importing large quantities of sophisticated, US-made weapons, Zhou states that China will not be deterred by Taiwan's military force as "the defending of territorial integrity and safeguarding of the unity of the motherland concerns the security of China's state sovereignty, from which no one can retreat or comprise." Zhou dismisses the political will of the Taiwanese people. Instead, he concludes that the desire for independence is a Taiwan separatist scheme to disguise secession activities "under the banner for the pursuit of popular will, democracy and human rights" and provide an excuse for Western "hostile forces" to meddle in China's domestic affairs.

     

    Zhou also criticizes the US for tightening political and military ties with Taiwan, which he says sends the wrong signals to secessionists in the islands. He predicts a Sino-U.S. conflict is highly likely if a military clash should break out in the Taiwan Strait. To read this article in English, please click here.

     

    2 . Lu Ning: Political probity and Taiwan reunification

     

    Zhou Zhihuai's article, to some degree, reflects the views on the Taiwan issue of hard-liners in China. While it is common for hard-liners to argue the Taiwan issue as an issue of national sovereignty, territorial integrity and even national pride, other scholars are taking the issue from different political and social points of view. Lu Ning, for example, talks about the influence of Chinese civil society as part of a long-term effort to reunify China with Taiwan. Lu Ning is a senior commentator for the Oriental Morning Post of Shanghai. He also writes political and economic commentaries for China Daily, Southern Weekend, Southern Metropolitan Daily, 21st Century Economic Report and Contemporary Executives. Titled "Political probity and Taiwan reunification," Lu's article claims that the future of reunification will not be determined by how many missiles China aims at the island but largely by China's internal factors of economic growth, the building of a civil society and political integrity. Comparing China's economic, social and political achievements to the centripetal force in Physics, Lu points out the way to lure Taiwan and its people toward reunification is to maintain China's economic growth, to reduce inequality, to build a civil society and most importantly, to make progress toward democracy, rule of law and curbing corruption.  Unlike Zhou Zhihuai, who embraces a strong military stance as the resolution to the Taiwan issue, Lu Ning clearly places more emphasis on the internal political and social reform of mainland China. Though the two authors both claim the role of United States in the Taiwan issue as "non-consequential" and "external," both predict a military conflict between China and the US seems unavoidable should a war break out across the Taiwan Strait. To read the English translation of Lu Ning's article, please click here. For the original article in Chinese, please click here (鲁宁：政治越清明 台湾越近).

     

    Similar to Lu Ning's view on the Taiwan issue, the following are some other articles by Chinese scholars that point to the idea of social and political integrity in China as the best lure for reunification.  To read two such articles in Chinese, please click "Taiwan is not a big issue, democracy is"  (台湾事小 民主事大) and "The political choices of Taiwanese people as evidence of the political wisdom of Chinese people" (从台湾民众的政治选择看中国人民的政治智慧)

     

    3. Yun-han Chu and Andrew J. Nathan: A time for moderation

     

    This article is a summary of Yun-han Chu and Andrew J. Nathan's "Seizing the opportunity for change in the Taiwan Strait" published in the Washington Quarterly. Yun-han Chu is distinguished senior fellow at the Institute of Political Science of the Academia Sinica, Taipei. Andrew J. Nathan is the Class of 1919 professor of political science at Columbia University. As the article's title suggests, Chu and Nathan believe the incoming presidential election in Taiwan will bring new hope to the current cross-strait tensions.

     

    Chu and Nathan emphasize that though the coming presidential election and the U.N. referenda may cause some tensions, an important result of the elections is predetermined: Taiwan's next president will be a relative moderate on cross-strait issues. Chu and Nathan indicate such a development is due to a shift in the mood of Taiwan voters. Chen Shui-bian's pro-independence efforts over the past eight years have hardened Beijing's position and damaged Taiwan's loyal support from Washington. Internally, the island suffered an economic recession and a stream of corruption scandals. In response to an uncertain and potentially dangerous future, most voters are open to independence or reunification depending on which can be achieved peacefully.

     

    Of the two major presidential candidates—Frank Hsieh (Hsieh Ch'ang-t'ing) from the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party and Ma Ying-jeou from the pro-unification Kuomintang—Chu and Nathan consider both as moderates on cross-strait relations. According to the authors, Frank Hsieh believes Taiwan cannot avoid mainland influence and Taiwanese economic interests are too tied to the mainland to make a realistic bid for independence. The Kuomintang candidate Ma Ying-jeou, on the other hand, might endorse Beijing's One China Principle conditionally to get political negotiations across the Strait started; he hopes the Mainland may eventually be willing to accept the concept of a Chinese confederation with the Republic of China as a member.  In order to create a more benevolent political atmosphere, Chu and Nathan suggest both sides of the strait promote direct flights, encourage tourism, work on currency exchange, and allow direct cargo transfer. For Beijing, the authors suggest a relaxation of opposition to Taiwanese membership in the World Health Assembly, relaxation of the ban on high-level Taiwan participation in APEC, and even a freeze on the deployment of missiles pointed at the island. While Chu and Nathan hold optimistic views and argue for a peaceful future of the Strait, some of their proposals for the Chinese side are highly unlikely, if not totally impossible to expect in the context of the current political situation.  To read "A time for moderation," please click here. The original article "Seizing the opportunity for change in the Taiwan Strait" is available in PDF format here.  

     

    4. Joseph S. Nye: Taiwan and fear in US-China ties

     

    Joseph S. Nye, University Distinguished Service Professor, is also the Sultan of Oman Professor of International Relations and former Dean of the Kennedy School, Harvard University. He has served as Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs, Chair of the National Intelligence Council, and Deputy Under Secretary of State for Security Assistance, Science and Technology. In this article published on Taipei Times about Sino-U.S. relations, Nye warns that Americans and Chinese people must avoid exaggerated fears of future conflicts. He considers the belief that a conflict is inevitable (and most possibly will be triggered by a war across the Taiwan Strait) a misconception.

     

    Nye claims that the US's interest across the Strait is to maintain good relations with China while protecting Taiwan's democracy. However, the US does not have a national interest in helping Taiwan's independence at the expense of creating enmity with mainland China. In this light, Washington is against Taiwan's "provocative" referendum to join the UN as well as China's strong stance on a military take-over of the island. Despite popular perception in China, Nye denies the Chinese allegation that the US seeks to use Taiwan as an "unsinkable aircraft carrier" to hedge China. Such suspicions can feed a climate of enmity, he argues, and Washington neither wishes to anger Beijing nor go to war over Taiwan. To read "Taiwan and fear in US-China ties," please click here.

     

     

    In 1972, when meeting with U.S. President Nixon in Beijing, Chairman Mao Zedong surprisingly referred to the Taiwan issue as "a small problem." At the time the nation was preoccupied with a potential war with the Soviet Union. In order to ease tensions concerning the Taiwan controversy, Mao proposed that the Taiwan issue be dealt with in one hundred years, or rather China was willing to wait that long. However, less than 40 years after Mao's statement, the peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait is under attack. Are we on the verge of an armed conflict across the Strait or even across the Pacific Ocean? The answer may come all too soon.

     

    Chinaelections.net

     

    TIPS & LINKS

    Issue 20, February 08, 2008    

    China Program, The Carter Center

     

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